Canada waits for the election

Tomorrow Canadians go to the polls to elect a new federal government. It's too soon for an election by at least 6 months, but Chretien wanted to call one now, so we're stuck with it. Why did he call it so early in his mandate? Primarily, he thought he could win it now, before the Alliance party could get itself together after they chose a new leader. The polls showed that the more people saw of Stockwell Day, the more they liked him. And Chretien wanted to be the first Prime Minister since Laurier to win three majorities in a row.

At first it looked like a smart thing to do. The Alliance campaign was not well organized, and Day kept stepping on his tongue. Then some of his aides, and some of the Alliance candidates started saying stupid things. Not just politically unpopular things, though those were said too, but politically stupid things. Even if your party intended to reduce old age pensions, (which the Alliances doesn't), you'd never, ever, say so in an election. One of the Alliance candidates did, with results a political child could predict.

It's hard to get your message out when you have to explain or deny a stupid statement. That's what Day spent most of the campaign doing. The Liberals flung every bit of dirt they could find, from decade old statements, to making the worst of Day's personal beliefs. I didn't hear the statement, but it was reported that Day believes in Creationism and that Man and dinosaurs walked the earth together. That sure has me shaking my head. Day says he believes that "the bible is true," but doesn't explain any further. If you ask me, for a political audience in secular Canada, that's too much explanation already.

The mud flinging didn't go just one way. After years of denial, Chretien finally admitted he was involved in calling a bank president to get a loan for a constituent. The more we heard about it, the worse it appears. Even as late as yesterday, there were still more details coming out. The opposition parties are united by few things, but all want further investigation of this.

Most Canadians don't want Chretien as Prime Minister anymore. We're tired of having a Prime Minister that can't speak either official language. During his trip to the Middle East Chretien succeeded in getting the Jews and Arabs to agree about something. Namely, that he was an idiot who didn't have a clue what he was talking about. Just the guy we need to represent Canada.

Normally the solution is to vote for the opposition candidates. However, this time there is a problem. The Official Opposition is the western based Alliance party, who have no seats east of Manitoba. This will be the third election they've tried to break into vote-rich Ontario. During the last election they split the vote with the PC party, and the Liberals snuck up the middle. They changed their name from Reform to Alliance, and selected a new leader in aid of this goal. They've spent a lot of time and money hustling the Ontario voters. The polls show they haven't succeeded, but I guess we have to wait until tomorrow to find out for sure. Day makes a lot of people, especially women, nervous.

The Progressive Conservative party used to be one of the two major parties, but were annihilated in the 1993 election. They've been struggling ever since. Right now they are being led by the Right Honourable Joe Clark, who was Prime Minister for 9 months in 1979-80. He did very well during the leaders debate, and has had the best campaign of all the parties. People thought he was nuts to run in Calgary Center, against a strong Alliance candidate. But right now the polls show that the difference in popular support is within the margin of error. The party is also doing well in Atlantic Canada, to the point Chretien started demonizing Clark.

Of the other two parties, the New Democratic party is a one note left-wing movement. The polls show they may lose official party status. The Bloc Quebecois only runs candidates in Quebec, and nominally, are devoted to removing Quebec from the Canadian Confederation. Their support is about equal to the Liberals in Quebec.

So how is it all going to play out? I'd like to see Chretien lose his seat. He could do so, and for a little while would remain leader of the Liberals. I'd like to see Joe Clark win his seat in Calgary, which would keep the Alliance humble. Alliance is going to win most, if not all the seats in western Canada. The NDP might steal a couple in their strongholds in Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and British Columbia. The Bloc are going to take most of the seats in Quebec, and as long as they are smart enough to remember it is a vote against the Liberals and not for sovereignty everybody will be happy. Well, except the Liberals, and who cares about them. Eastern Canada is going to be a dogfight. The Liberals are going to take some of the seats there, but I'd like to see the PC's take most of them. Ontario is where it all gets decided because they have 103 of the 301 seats in the House of Commons. The polls show that about a third of the seats are up for grabs. If the electors can agree on their ABC vote, (anybody but Chretien), then the Liberals end up with a minority government.

It sounds odd, but this will please everybody except Chretien, including most Liberals. Why? If the Liberals end up with a minority government, they will find the guts to push Chretien out of office, and elect Paul Martin as leader of the party. Most people believe the Liberals would have won this election in walk if Chretien had stepped aside for Paul Martin. During the year or so this would take we have an opportunity to see both the PC's and the Alliance in action. This could well decide the future of both parties, since there is really only room for one of them.

So lets hear it for a minority government. Get out and vote to make it happen!